Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.815829 0.949206 1.097036 1.272975 1.476629 1.704929 1.980283
2025-02-02 0.632327 0.820365 1.051738 1.357107 1.749395 2.236354 2.886917
2025-02-09 0.520010 0.728721 1.005203 1.397707 1.940243 2.663576 3.701572
2025-02-16 0.438111 0.653861 0.957402 1.414684 2.085509 3.033193 4.474208
2025-02-23 0.373717 0.589089 0.908324 1.414617 2.196517 3.357663 5.213545
2025-03-02 0.321005 0.531466 0.858369 1.401272 2.279176 3.642346 5.920292
2025-03-09 0.281619 0.487669 0.821701 1.400267 2.375880 3.953490 6.698616
2025-03-16 0.240488 0.434318 0.761348 1.350478 2.383506 4.118281 7.252701
2025-03-23 0.229351 0.430457 0.782401 1.439594 2.633839 4.709651 8.591174
2025-03-30 0.200337 0.390266 0.734608 1.400296 2.652351 4.902099 9.250135
2025-04-06 0.174773 0.352780 0.686564 1.353521 2.649731 5.053468 9.847169
2025-04-13 0.153585 0.320728 0.644395 1.311865 2.650245 5.207912 10.463255
2025-04-20 0.142026 0.306808 0.636301 1.337465 2.787769 5.643311 11.687288
2025-04-27 0.137833 0.307638 0.657822 1.425894 3.062769 6.379411 13.602051
2025-05-04 0.129534 0.298470 0.657507 1.468524 3.247876 6.955080 15.254530
2025-05-11 0.119958 0.285091 0.646446 1.486347 3.381697 7.438547 16.766975
2025-05-18 0.110048 0.269512 0.628488 1.486277 3.475495 7.845826 18.158347
2025-05-25 0.100231 0.252764 0.605748 1.472266 3.535748 8.185700 19.437213
2025-06-01 0.092344 0.239572 0.589502 1.471211 3.625379 8.600005 20.932488
2025-06-08 0.082161 0.219246 0.553822 1.418939 3.586966 8.716507 21.741929
2025-06-15 0.081319 0.222699 0.576271 1.512499 3.914105 9.724114 24.805669
2025-06-22 0.073278 0.206119 0.546792 1.471242 3.900297 9.912784 25.877192
2025-06-29 0.065706 0.189745 0.515802 1.422133 3.860379 10.032588 26.788601